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2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science Vol. $130,779 50 traders

1st hottest64%
3rd hottest21%
2nd hottest10%
4th or lower1%
$130,779 Vol. Science

Outcomes

4
Chance
1st hottest
64% ▼ 23
2nd hottest
10% ▲ 4
3rd hottest
20% ▲ 12
4th or lower
1% ▲ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x039b…9b6c BUY Yes $23.10 1h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $7.60 1h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $18.36 1h ago
  • 0x8f6b…010c BUY Yes $6.26 1h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $19.82 1h ago
  • 0x8f6b…010c BUY Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0x53bf…f269 BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $9.18 5h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $3.90 5h ago
  • 0x0ef9…8f58 BUY Yes $8.49 5h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $9.99 5h ago
  • 0x6fb1…e637 SELL Yes $16.50 6h ago
  • 0x3a46…1b0d SELL Yes $15.04 6h ago
  • 0x903c…079b SELL Yes $30.70 6h ago
  • 0xd83f…03b1 SELL Yes $34.50 7h ago
  • 0x1354…0f63 BUY Yes $1.00 7h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f SELL Yes $1.70 7h ago
  • 0x1354…0f63 BUY Yes $1.00 7h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $4.39 7h ago
  • 0x3a2b…3874 BUY No $1.00 7h ago
  • 0x3c18…32c3 SELL Yes $4.04 7h ago
  • 0x3a2b…3874 BUY No $1.00 7h ago
  • 0xae7a…25ea SELL Yes $4.04 7h ago
  • 0xf333…ba41 SELL No $48.84 7h ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 BUY No $54.23 7h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $9.07 7h ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 BUY No $47.76 7h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $7.98 7h ago
  • 0x5a21…9318 SELL Yes $0.24 7h ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 BUY No $59.58 7h ago
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $54.42 7h ago
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $47.42 7h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $9.96 7h ago
  • 0xf333…ba41 SELL No $2.69 7h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $5.64 7h ago
  • 0xf333…ba41 SELL No $6.85 7h ago
  • 0xeaa9…1737 SELL No $59.95 7h ago
  • 0x4041…6f52 BUY Yes $443.17 7h ago
  • 0x4041…6f52 BUY Yes $180.88 7h ago
  • 0x3901…9761 SELL Yes $1.92 7h ago

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Comments

ballzi. Jul 27

this is going to be a very emotional rollercoaster for some in about 2 weeks