China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
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- 0xe8d6…d5db BUY No $1000.00 40m ago
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- 0x215a…254c SELL No $463.50 4h ago
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- 0x215a…254c SELL No $358.93 5h ago
- 0xe8d6…d5db BUY No $500.00 5h ago
- 0xac4a…bf1e SELL No $465.00 6h ago
- 0x215a…254c SELL No $129.45 6h ago
- 0x215a…254c SELL No $466.00 6h ago
- 0xac4a…bf1e SELL No $466.00 6h ago
- 0xac4a…bf1e SELL No $66.89 6h ago
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- 0xe8d6…d5db BUY No $1000.00 13h ago
- 0xf63a…d769 BUY Yes $3.34 13h ago
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.97 14h ago
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- 0x4688…59d7 SELL Yes $0.96 15h ago
- 0xe8d6…d5db BUY No $518.50 17h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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