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European military action against Iran by...?

UK Vol. $204,806 50 traders

July 311%
August 315%
$204,806 Vol. UK

Outcomes

2
Chance
July 31
<1%
August 31
5%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.10 50m ago
  • 0x90f7…2501 BUY No $435.01 50m ago
  • 0xf419…ece5 BUY No $19.88 2h ago
  • 0xda90…8efa SELL Yes $0.29 3h ago
  • 0xda90…8efa SELL Yes $0.88 3h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $19.95 6h ago
  • 0x348f…691c BUY No $24.70 6h ago
  • 0x8b9e…0310 BUY No $28.49 6h ago
  • 0xa514…7788 BUY No $30.40 6h ago
  • 0xacff…5ce8 BUY No $38.00 6h ago
  • 0x05a4…4862 BUY No $33.25 6h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $19.95 7h ago
  • 0xc0c2…b14d SELL No $7.58 9h ago
  • 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.10 10h ago
  • 0x35bb…009b SELL No $2904.42 10h ago
  • 0x53f9…80b7 BUY Yes $4.99 11h ago
  • 0xad52…11ac BUY Yes $55.06 11h ago
  • 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.10 11h ago
  • 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $23.96 11h ago
  • 0x9178…a2b2 SELL Yes $0.16 11h ago
  • 0x35bb…009b SELL No $1020.77 12h ago
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY No $99.55 12h ago
  • 0xfaf6…cc47 BUY No $1388.21 14h ago
  • 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.10 15h ago
  • 0xa5cb…6cb5 SELL No $17.53 15h ago
  • 0x2d99…4ca3 BUY No $4522.99 15h ago
  • 0xc3f6…060f SELL No $0.49 15h ago
  • 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $6.03 15h ago
  • 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $5.44 15h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $0.60 16h ago
  • 0xf92a…a517 BUY No $1895.20 16h ago
  • 0xa0b0…a5fb BUY Yes $5.00 17h ago
  • 0x6e73…a236 BUY Yes $50.00 18h ago
  • 0xa7a3…7739 BUY Yes $25.00 19h ago
  • 0xf76f…de29 SELL Yes $0.32 Jul 28
  • 0xc1d1…f1ba BUY No $29.79 Jul 28
  • 0xe323…fd43 BUY No $70.00 Jul 28
  • 0x8746…4d8b BUY No $10.00 Jul 28
  • 0xd1cf…de94 SELL No $6.03 Jul 28
  • 0xe85e…fd9f BUY No $4.80 Jul 27

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.

Comments

whumpa 46m ago

Add December 31 ant April 31 2027

AMo Jul 27

Ukraine hit iran ships. it's official.

Lolakis Jul 27

read the rules dummy

SadMax1 Jul 27

“Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran

amblified Jul 21

Andorra, Liechtenstein, and Vatican City are included in the rules despite none of them having any military or even being associated with NATO lmao

StarMaster Jul 21

The Vatican has Jesus + his army of 12 disciples ... they will basically overrun Iran peacefully

StarMaster Jul 20

thanks for the fill... I guess

NOIZYUV Jul 20

LOL.. never

windtree Jul 20

Yopp