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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Fed Vol. $588,875 50 traders

Other68%
Pause–Pause–Pause22%
Pause–Pause–Cut3%
Pause–Cut–Pause2%
$588,875 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

9
Chance
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
22% ▲ 2
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
69% ▼ 5

Recent trades

40
  • 0x25f9…f1f0 BUY Yes $10.00 57m ago
  • 0x239f…8b82 SELL Yes $10.50 8h ago
  • 0x597f…702c SELL Yes $0.31 10h ago
  • 0xd576…b8f4 SELL Yes $134.75 10h ago
  • 0x68d9…00ed BUY Yes $23.94 17h ago
  • 0xcbdc…f5e4 SELL Yes $10.00 19h ago
  • 0x903c…079b SELL Yes $10.00 21h ago
  • 0xf79e…e434 SELL Yes $10.00 21h ago
  • 0xd99c…8490 SELL Yes $10.15 21h ago
  • 0x82ae…2890 SELL No $3.12 22h ago
  • 0x13eb…a4e6 SELL Yes $10.50 23h ago
  • 0x82ae…2890 SELL Yes $1.05 23h ago
  • 0x82ae…2890 SELL No $0.79 23h ago
  • 0x608f…9065 SELL Yes $10.00 Jul 28
  • 0xc798…6254 SELL Yes $10.00 Jul 28
  • 0xacf8…f5bb SELL Yes $10.00 Jul 28
  • 0x5b50…b087 SELL Yes $10.00 Jul 28
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $185.85 Jul 28
  • 0x4777…1e79 SELL Yes $10.00 Jul 28
  • 0x0992…b890 SELL Yes $10.29 Jul 28
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $11.00 Jul 28
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $3.45 Jul 28
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $6.60 Jul 28
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $52.80 Jul 28
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $39.02 Jul 28
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $17.63 Jul 28
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $39.50 Jul 28
  • 0x517a…6491 BUY Yes $1.97 Jul 28
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $21.41 Jul 28
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.37 Jul 28
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $9.69 Jul 28
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $3.28 Jul 28
  • 0x31ff…209b BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x31ff…209b BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x46b1…428c SELL Yes $2.74 Jul 26
  • 0x2801…9dfe SELL Yes $0.47 Jul 26
  • 0xb275…7a5c SELL Yes $0.73 Jul 26
  • 0x8092…b8a2 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 26
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $75.23 Jul 26
  • 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $10.89 Jul 26

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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