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Fed rate cut by...?
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Outcomes
8January Meeting Resolved
0%
▼ 1
March Meeting Resolved
0%
April Meeting Resolved
0%
June Meeting Resolved
0%
▼ 1
July Meeting
<1%
September Meeting
4%
▲ 1
October Meeting
8%
December Meeting
15%
▼ 1
Recent trades
40- 0x8561…01d5 BUY Yes $2.00 2h ago
- 0x8561…01d5 BUY Yes $2.33 3h ago
- 0x1d5f…634d SELL No $3716.80 4h ago
- 0x30e4…5102 SELL Yes $7.35 7h ago
- 0x30e4…5102 SELL Yes $6.24 7h ago
- 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $3.26 10h ago
- 0x597f…702c BUY Yes $1.00 10h ago
- 0x597f…702c SELL Yes $1.41 10h ago
- 0x30e4…5102 SELL Yes $5.84 13h ago
- 0x9e16…7a42 SELL Yes $0.56 16h ago
- 0x40c5…5cba BUY Yes $1.80 17h ago
- 0x40c5…5cba BUY Yes $1.95 17h ago
- 0x2801…9dfe SELL Yes $0.45 17h ago
- 0xb275…7a5c SELL Yes $0.01 17h ago
- 0x59dd…61a1 SELL Yes $0.22 17h ago
- 0x2801…9dfe BUY Yes $231.66 17h ago
- 0xc754…bb99 SELL Yes $0.77 17h ago
- 0x46b1…428c BUY No $8.99 17h ago
- 0xa5c2…5b5f SELL Yes $1.55 21h ago
- 0x05f8…9b8c BUY Yes $1.00 22h ago
- 0xe807…4d35 BUY No $499.00 Jul 28
- 0xfffa…325f BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 28
- 0xa4b3…87b8 BUY Yes $7.92 Jul 28
- 0xc695…66d1 SELL No $6.45 Jul 28
- 0x5a79…6296 BUY No $149.70 Jul 28
- 0x3448…d09b SELL Yes $30.31 Jul 28
- 0xab03…358b SELL No $5.31 Jul 28
- 0x46ee…eb1e SELL Yes $33.83 Jul 28
- 0xb924…0803 SELL No $4.79 Jul 28
- 0x4eba…c7d7 SELL No $5.02 Jul 28
- 0x40c5…5cba SELL Yes $2.86 Jul 28
- 0x8583…35a5 BUY No $46.00 Jul 28
- 0xc754…bb99 BUY Yes $1.02 Jul 28
- 0x40c5…5cba BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 28
- 0x7365…64da BUY Yes $36.84 Jul 28
- 0x8a7b…782f BUY No $497.50 Jul 27
- 0x018c…bbea BUY No $19.89 Jul 27
- 0x23e8…39bd BUY Yes $23.65 Jul 27
- 0xf6ea…0a00 BUY No $3873.15 Jul 27
- 0x73a4…6692 SELL No $0.32 Jul 27
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comments
amondablack?
Easy money on no cuts by December. Base case is hold, one hike is a possibility, but not a cut.
fed cut the rats
it wont cut until oct. mark it
r u dumb? yes.
How can there be a December one if this market auto resolves to no after July?
magic man
How is it possible there are 24% for October and 21% for December ??
you misunderstood the rates.... if you choose December that means that will cut rate AFTER october...But if the cut before october you will lose the December postion....
low liquididty, ignore the retard with negative PNL who doesnt ave basic comprehension skills
Still a lot of room for surprises.
If new FED chairman Warsh will cut rate by end of meeting JUNE 16-17 this will be YES,right?
its a board who votes, yk that right, not just one guy
Ok,if board will cut it on june meeting 16-17 is it yes, or until this meeting.
Biggest risk for june meeting is that Warsh won't be there
Which is nil?
no, more than 10% for sure
Interesting. do they have that literal market? what's best market to take action on that?
yes "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?" He should be confirmed by may 15 or its major fuck up by the administration
no
march of corse
aprile
June Meeting
NO (72% confidence). Summary: A rate cut must occur by April 29, 2026 to resolve Yes. After easing in 2025, officials are signaling patience early in 2026, and many forecasters expect the next move closer to midyear rather than March or April. Without a clear shock forcing action, an early spring cut appears unlikely, making no cut by the April meeting the base case. Strategy: Hold a core No position, add small event driven Yes hedges before CPI and jobs prints, and trim exposure after the January and March FOMC meetings. Key factors: unanimous top trader consensus favoring No, Fed projections pointing to only one cut in 2026 and typically later in the year, policymaker guidance favoring a pause early in 2026 following 2025 cuts, major sell side forecasts shifting expected cuts to mid 2026, and no current catalyst for an emergency intermeeting cut. Strength: Against 78%, For 48%. Quality: Good.
Deflation then cuts. I am confident that makes me look smart.
80%
The Fed cut 25bps this month to finish the year with a cumulative 1.75% drop from the peak. Most experts say we're at "neutral" now, so don't expect more cuts until at least June 2026.