How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Outcomes
13Recent trades
40- 0x1e63…7267 SELL No $1.03 3m ago
- 0x9338…29ab BUY No $15.00 7m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 9m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.47 10m ago
- 0xa996…34b5 SELL No $2.21 10m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 24m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.47 24m ago
- 0x1e63…7267 BUY No $1.00 28m ago
- 0x8318…75a9 SELL No $19.48 28m ago
- 0x0fac…6445 BUY No $14.10 37m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 39m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.47 39m ago
- 0x1e63…7267 SELL No $0.04 40m ago
- 0xa996…34b5 BUY No $2.47 44m ago
- 0xdc81…3cc7 SELL Yes $0.50 47m ago
- 0x6f2a…9551 SELL No $1.38 51m ago
- 0x6f2a…9551 BUY No $1.54 51m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 54m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.47 54m ago
- 0x0ed0…733b SELL Yes $4.99 56m ago
- 0x0ed0…733b BUY Yes $5.00 57m ago
- 0xdda5…c82a BUY Yes $86.40 1h ago
- 0x97c6…6587 SELL No $0.28 1h ago
- 0x9165…bb28 BUY No $5.04 1h ago
- 0x97c6…6587 SELL No $0.80 1h ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 1h ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.47 1h ago
- 0x97c6…6587 SELL No $0.04 1h ago
- 0x97c6…6587 SELL No $0.07 1h ago
- 0x5e7f…7bfd BUY Yes $2.00 1h ago
- 0xf440…e406 BUY No $6.13 1h ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 1h ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.47 1h ago
- 0x1a11…929c BUY No $6.88 1h ago
- 0xc35e…cb07 SELL No $1006.67 1h ago
- 0xca11…4291 BUY No $7.28 1h ago
- 0x1435…4572 BUY No $7.09 1h ago
- 0x97c6…6587 BUY No $1.19 1h ago
- 0x7233…84d0 BUY Yes $12.00 1h ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.46 1h ago
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Comments
dudjbdj retard of the day my lord
2+ let's go!
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.
Soft CPI print would allow for possible rate cut in Oct/Dec with QT to offset it
12+ let's go! I told you guys. This year is not gonna end well for the worlds economy and then the Fed will have no other choice.
You will lose so much money and I will just get to sit back and see it happend
How can I lose "so much money". I put only 7.5$. My avg price is 0.3c. If I win, I'll make 2500$. It's an asymmetric bet and I have a good chance of winning it because I know what's coming this fall.
Alright, well that $7.5 is gone then... They aren't cutting in 2026. The projections suggest potential cuts in 2027 however
Projections don't matter. Look at what happened at the start of covid. They made two emergency meetings and dropped interest rates to zero immediately. That's what happens when the system threatens to crash and it will happen again.
Also looking at your past performance, always betting on No, nothing bad is ever gonna happen, hasn't brought you too much success. No offense.
Uhm, actually the betting on No's has been a recent strategy switch which has been quite profitable as thankfully there exists delusional people like yourself. For the moment there are no markets where I have any tangible advantage so I just hold some relatively safe bets
If I'm so delusional, then why am I up 4x on my account since I started polymarket last February, while you're down badly?
You guys don't know what's coming. Economies are going to collapse this fall. Interest rates will drop to zero. 12+ will give me a 300x return.
ye s s
Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals make zero or one 2026 rate cut the most plausible outcome
odds can shift pretty quickly
Watch Warsh would say policy is neutral then start rate cuts with QT
What if they cut 75bps at once, does that count as 1 or 3 rate cuts?
Rules: "If the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each)."
After a black swan event, rates can drop quickly.
there is no outcome that can currently be described as 100%
There will 100% be no rate cuts.
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
A rate increase is not a cut, so the counter stays at 0.
habra recortes seguroooo
9 - unreal
How does 1 hike 1 cut resolve?
por cuantas van?
Two cuts feels like the consensus path right now
theres barely even a single cut on the table, the consensus is no cuts or a hike. the data doesnt support any kind of cuts now with rising unemployment, slow job growth, and sticky inflation. the fed has no choice but to wait and see which of the two forces is stronger
poly98 predicts at least one.. hoping its right
To the Moon 📈
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
Dont be retarded please
Yea.. 0 resolve to Yes bro
chill fam 😂
my ranked teamates
tough markets to trade… my prediction market agent at pref[trade] just flagged that there’s some disparity with fedwatch.
why doesnt polymarket and fedwatch coincide?
They are cooking fedwatch and general public opinion to lower the inflation expectations. Lieing also prevents the speculative investors from frontrunning. Polymarket odds are about right. We'll probably get rate cuts.
A classic in the human mind: if we don't know something, it's been manipulated.
2
200 never gues
8 month to wait the result, bro
If it cuts 100 bps the 25,50 and 75 cuts will resume to NO, correct?
yes, its the exact amount
priced in for 2 hike by the end of oct now.
What if we are seeing a rate hike instead
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赌球
摇头丸
need "idk" option
No rate cuts this year
Hey you said only smart plays
LOL
noo
2