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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Fed Vol. $69,289 50 traders

0 (0 bps)22%
1 (25 bps)37%
2 (50 bps)32%
3 (75 bps)11%
$69,289 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

6
Chance
0 (0 bps)
22%
1 (25 bps)
37% ▲ 1
2 (50 bps)
32% ▲ 3
3 (75 bps)
11% ▼ 1
4 (100 bps)
2% ▲ 1
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xfebd…68d5 BUY Yes $3.57 6h ago
  • 0xab57…e05f SELL Yes $19.60 9h ago
  • 0x8e07…0439 SELL Yes $12.67 10h ago
  • 0x3c18…32c3 SELL Yes $18.00 10h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $15.19 10h ago
  • 0xab57…e05f SELL Yes $51.19 10h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $11.34 13h ago
  • 0xca1f…d282 BUY No $12.80 13h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $32.00 13h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $25.60 13h ago
  • 0xfb19…cd27 BUY Yes $200.00 13h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $36.00 13h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $39.76 13h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $39.88 13h ago
  • 0x572c…4360 SELL Yes $0.29 14h ago
  • 0x2a5b…b78b SELL Yes $0.29 14h ago
  • 0xcdb1…276c SELL Yes $80.36 14h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $27.03 14h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $1.08 14h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $31.20 14h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $59.92 14h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $23.40 14h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $56.64 14h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $23.60 14h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $17.70 14h ago
  • 0x0a38…f931 SELL No $266.22 14h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $54.00 14h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $36.00 14h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $29.82 14h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $96.24 14h ago
  • 0xcfff…673d BUY No $39.76 14h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $96.44 14h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $28.80 14h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $39.84 14h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $36.50 16h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $45.00 16h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $49.70 16h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $49.80 16h ago
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL No $38.00 16h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $29.50 16h ago

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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