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Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran Vol. $6,829,277 136 traders

July 150%
July 316%
August 3133%
July 240%
$6,829,277 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

10
Chance
June 30 Resolved
0%
July 15 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 31
6% ▲ 4
August 31
33% ▲ 4
July 21 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 24 Resolved
0% ▼ 9
August 15
25% ▲ 7
July 27 Resolved
0%
September 30
45% ▲ 7
December 31
51% ▼ 10

Recent trades

40
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $4.49 20m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $1.01 20m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $0.76 22m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $2.24 22m ago
  • 0x9845…bbc2 SELL No $36.11 23m ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL No $199.17 25m ago
  • 0x86a6…1b3e BUY Yes $80.00 25m ago
  • 0xbdcd…0fe6 SELL No $13.20 26m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $9.18 26m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $56.03 26m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $63.60 26m ago
  • 0x82fb…bed6 SELL No $13.20 26m ago
  • 0x1eb5…c246 SELL No $26.40 26m ago
  • 0x86a6…1b3e BUY Yes $300.00 26m ago
  • 0x86a6…1b3e BUY Yes $0.73 27m ago
  • 0x5844…5bd4 SELL No $19.62 48m ago
  • 0xa8ae…8eb7 SELL No $373.31 57m ago
  • 0x595c…1a1d SELL Yes $3.22 1h ago
  • 0xf63a…5d80 BUY No $253.04 1h ago
  • 0xc827…ec65 SELL Yes $4.70 1h ago
  • 0xd20e…b050 SELL No $100.05 1h ago
  • 0xd20e…b050 SELL No $9.33 1h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.97 1h ago
  • 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.98 1h ago
  • 0x6978…08d8 BUY No $838.71 1h ago
  • 0x5b8d…a1ae BUY No $10.00 1h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.97 2h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 2h ago
  • 0x929a…5ab4 SELL No $60.90 3h ago
  • 0x0dcb…e866 SELL No $0.99 3h ago
  • 0xf725…7a92 SELL No $0.99 3h ago
  • 0x3a72…e3a6 SELL No $0.99 3h ago
  • 0xa624…d8af SELL No $0.99 3h ago
  • 0x882b…a746 BUY Yes $3.30 3h ago
  • 0x76b0…417d SELL Yes $9.60 4h ago
  • 0x3eb3…23b2 SELL No $0.34 4h ago
  • 0x0b73…2562 BUY Yes $50.00 6h ago
  • 0xa164…4686 SELL Yes $64.00 6h ago
  • 0xfc1f…a246 BUY Yes $31.25 7h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $17.00 8h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

Mikelious 9m ago

Hezbollah just targetted IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon.

NOIZYUV 43m ago

A senior US official: "Iran is about six months away from a nuclear bomb. As you can see, we have been negotiating for nearly six months and haven't made progress on even a single point. The Iranians are deceiving Trump and his negotiating team, buying themselves valuable time."

NOIZYUV 1h ago

Reuters: China to supply Iran with anti-aircraft missiles in the coming weeks.

NOIZYUV 4h ago

Senior Iranian official noted that Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for regional joint management of the Strait Of Hormuz, noting it as unworkable

NOIZYUV 6h ago

As usual never trust ☪️

Skoobidoobnj 11h ago

🌮

Mikelious 12h ago

BREAKING: IRAN JUST FIRED A BARRAGE OF ROCKETS INTO US BASES IN GULF STATES AND JORDAN.

abdoohl 13h ago

And behind it all is the Great Satan

abdoohl 13h ago

NEW: Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, called Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi He apologized for the incident that killed an Iranian citizen on a civilian ship, and blamed it on Russia. He asked Iran not to respond with force.

NOIZYUV 18h ago

Netanyahu and Trump are currently meeting. I personally don't have high hopes. Trump is too afraid to do what's right

NOIZYUV 23h ago

Iran publicly executes two Isfahan protesters. It's time to end the largest terror producer of the 21st century

pink.impala 21h ago

They already executed like 30K so why such a fuzz bout 2 more..

pink.impala 21h ago

rhetorical question bitch! its cuz these 2 executions actually happened!

NOIZYUV 20h ago

I know that in your religion human lives have to value

pink.impala 20h ago

what?

pink.impala 20h ago

have to value what?

pink.impala 20h ago

btw im a vatnik remember? we have no religion

NOIZYUV 19h ago

No value* I know you're ☪️

pink.impala 19h ago

because im against genocide makes me a muslim?

SIMOMEGA 19h ago

less victims doesnt make it much better....

pink.impala 19h ago

words take on a whole new meaning in the ***** distortion of reality

pink.impala 19h ago

no but it shows how absurd those claims about mass executions are. here they actually executed somebody, after due process which took 6 months..

SIMOMEGA 18h ago

still horrible, 4 victims are twice as horrible, but 1 victim is still horrible

pink.impala 18h ago

you guys just postulate some type of extra-juridical executions of 10s of thousands of ppl without any proof whatsoever

pink.impala 18h ago

this is the reason why ppl hate ******. Its not cuz its a ***** state, its because of the genocide of course but even more because of your absurd propaganda thats actually blatant lies (propaganda usually just hides some stuff and emphasis other)

pink.impala 18h ago

its really quite ironic that because ***** is the ***** state they can literally get away with the most horrible crimes

pink.impala 18h ago

so IMHO its the US that uses this for their own purpose. but it still boggles the mind that virtually every *** seems to be fine with this and even take pride in it

NOIZYUV 18h ago

But it's not surprising, you're a 3rd worlder and live in a dictatorship without free press and you're being brainwashed.

pink.impala 18h ago

US would attack Iran with or without Israel its just so funny that Israel willingly takes the blame. its almost like they politically captured

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Trump: "I’m not giving much time for negotiations. If the talks fail, we will return to powerful military action."

Shay1 Jul 27

Exactly why i bought with every dollar 🥹

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "As of now, we are not conducting any negotiations with the US. As long as the US does not understand that Hormuz is under Iranian control, Hormuz will remain closed."

Mikelious Jul 27

BREAKING: ISRAEL JUST INTERCEPTED 2 UNIDENTIFIED DRONES ALONG THE JORDANIAN BORDER. INVESTIGATIONS OF THE SOURCE HAVE BEGUN.

Mikelious Jul 27

Iranian drone just hit a cargo ship.

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Yalla balagan!

Shay1 Jul 27

Fr fr🤣 soon

abdoohl Jul 27

Iranian diaspora and clown prince Reza just the lowest scum, just sayin 🤡

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Everyone is very interested in what you have to say

abdoohl Jul 27

Reza Pahlavi met with the President of the World Jewish Congress in Israel, Sylvan Adams.

abdoohl Jul 26

Iran’s missile stockpile also astonished American strategists and military planners, who had falsely assumed that it would run out of launch capacity within a few weeks to months. Not only does Iran still have large amounts of missiles and drones, these projectiles are becoming increasingly lethal due to adaptation of targeting data and satellite feeds provided by allies.

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

theyre expensive though

NOIZYUV Jul 26

Iran: We have informed the mediators that we will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and that there will be no new route under different control; if the Americans wish to hold talks, they are welcome to do so on our terms.

Shay1 Jul 26

Alr we close asf to war it’s like 95% ready

NOIZYUV Jul 26

Iran: IRGC attacked an oil tanker that deviated from the shipping route designated by Iran.

Shay1 Jul 26

Israel prepared for the war back in a short time and for those who hold Israel air space they want to keep a piece of airspace open with the war

Shay1 Jul 26

I don’t believe that we that quiet for not good reason I’m all in fuck it

abdoohl Jul 26

🔥

Shay1 Jul 26

No luck for me I guess ofc I will buy 40 after days sticking on 55/59 and now is 36😤

Shay1 Jul 25

🔴 *Delayed End: Israel Prepared for a Large-Scale American Attack on Iran Tonight - Latest Statement Withdrawn* ✍️The small cabinet met last night for a more than 5-hour discussion on Iran, with the expectation that the attack that Trump said he was "considering" would be carried out that night; only late in the evening did it become clear in Jerusalem that the president had chosen to give Tehran another chance, and that all parties involved were instructed to go on alert. dumb ass trump always go back like a snake scared to be bitten in the ass

NOIZYUV Jul 25

With ☪️ if you dont bite you get bitten

Shay1 Jul 25

Yup that blonde mf never learned

Shay1 Jul 26

Hey bud why your bought 27 it’s close asf the date

NOIZYUV Jul 26

It was cheap so I figured why not

Shay1 Jul 26

I’m mean yea fr

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

except that theyve paused strikes for 2 days in a row now, or 3, & closure is looking very unlikely rn

Shay1 20h ago

I post on it comment they paused it to discuss about worsening the attacks even about if to bring the war back

NOIZYUV Jul 25

Trump: "I am definitely considering a full return to combat if we don't get 100% of what we demand from Iran."

Shay1 Jul 25

Yea and he said they got like 3 days

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

theyve paused for negotiations

Shay1 Jul 25

First night without attack weird