Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
Outcomes
23Recent trades
40- 0xd25b…9f3d BUY No $1737.26 Jul 18
- 0xd25b…9f3d BUY No $2000.00 Jul 18
- 0xa3be…39a5 BUY No $9971.22 Jul 18
- 0x4b19…3ee1 BUY No $6.36 Jul 18
- 0x7b84…a13e BUY No $101.00 Jul 18
- 0x7b84…a13e BUY No $101.00 Jul 18
- 0x0ff1…7234 SELL Yes $15.03 Jul 18
- 0x7b84…a13e BUY No $1.00 Jul 18
- 0xf6f7…06b5 BUY No $10.00 Jul 18
- 0x34af…bd55 BUY No $19.60 Jul 18
- 0xf25b…82d0 BUY Yes $1.60 Jul 18
- 0xd417…77ba BUY No $15.00 Jul 18
- 0x9a3f…914a BUY No $3912.93 Jul 18
- 0x79d4…6d24 BUY No $19.28 Jul 18
- 0xac4a…bf1e SELL Yes $0.80 Jul 18
- 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $3.73 Jul 18
- 0xf6d2…7048 SELL Yes $24.10 Jul 18
- 0xf6f7…06b5 BUY No $10.00 Jul 18
- 0x7d85…3a04 SELL Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0x6d68…11bc BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0x6d68…11bc BUY Yes $0.97 Jul 18
- 0xf25b…82d0 BUY Yes $1.45 Jul 18
- 0x9c8a…75f7 SELL No $1.94 Jul 18
- 0xa7fe…1f3e SELL Yes $9.02 Jul 18
- 0xb74b…b853 BUY Yes $3.58 Jul 18
- 0x94bb…c320 SELL Yes $490.08 Jul 18
- 0x8794…fa1b BUY No $5.00 Jul 18
- 0x07f2…ee29 BUY No $1.00 Jul 17
- 0x4bbe…c224 SELL Yes $19.98 Jul 17
- 0xb308…b117 SELL Yes $5.72 Jul 17
- 0x9468…ccb5 BUY No $1.69 Jul 17
- 0x91b4…1429 BUY No $1.00 Jul 17
- 0x91b4…1429 BUY No $1.00 Jul 17
- 0x9312…a285 BUY No $3.00 Jul 17
- 0x7514…5dd2 SELL Yes $68.73 Jul 17
- 0x2538…8bf5 BUY No $1.00 Jul 17
- 0x4247…91c4 BUY No $2.28 Jul 17
- 0xeb4e…4176 BUY No $1.00 Jul 17
- 0x8822…b769 BUY No $1.00 Jul 16
- 0xb777…3ff9 SELL Yes $20.98 Jul 16
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Comments
The US and Saudi Arabia struck targets in Iraq linked to Iran, which IRGC had ordered to attack Saudi energy infrastructure and US troops — CENTCOM
polymarket team , clarifacation here please Breaking News | Kuwaiti Cabinet: We condemn the aggression of #Iran and its proxies in several drone attacks on the Al-Abdali border crossing last Thursday
It's a complete sham where UMA’s Wall Street founders and their US VC backers control the rules, the votes, and the wallets all at once. This systemic conflict of interest lets them manipulate markets with impunity to strip retail traders of their money and line the pockets of their own whales.
the thing is Polymarket is made with "wisdom of the crowd" logic, so losing commoners is bad for them, eventually theyll give in, its only a matter of time, not if
not true poly is base on proposals whoever propose its thought as long as no dispute outcome will be base on the propose even the truth is against it so people should dispute these proposal before getting late
July 23rd is classic polymarket crime :( Looking at any of the arguments for Yes in the UMA dispute thread make it so obvious this outcome has been satisfied yet the market doesn't reflect it.
dude things happened but it doesnt meet the rules lmao you are not smarter than the dudes at poly
not finish
Dude,23th must be clarified The Iraqi militia Saraya Awliya al-Dam, initially accused of carrying out the attack on the Abdali border crossing, issued a statement denying responsibility for that specific attack. Then, a Kuwaiti official appeared on Agence France-Presse and explicitly accused Iran of being responsible. This isn't juts rage bait,this is reality and a sequence of events. Examine every word in it.
Shafaq News- Basra Iranian missiles struck the Abdali border crossing between Kuwait and Iraq on Thursday, a security source in the southern Iraqi province of Basra told Shafaq News
yes confirmed hope son trump dont play no
Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery has been struck by drones bloomberg, HormuzLetter
Al-Abdali border crossing targeted in drone attack: Kuwait defence ministry — ANI News Iran launches missiles and drones at Gulf states after US strikes — Al Jazeera Iran Update Evening Special Report, July 23, 2026 — Critical Threats (Institute for the Study of War) Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update, 24 July 2026 — Solace Global Iran-allied groups struck Kuwaiti border facilities — Iran International
is wiglew sonix?
Make a discord alt and comeback
not yet, i think this ban is good for me bcz i can focus on things now . i was keep getting distracted by discord
getting banned by discord is the best things can happen to a man, right before a reddit ban lol
if i blame you for smthing ,that means its done by you??
stfu
If the totality of information says you did something, that means a market that resolves on the totality of information will go No?
I’ve looked into it. In fact, the satellite images released by Iran on July 24 show the aftermath of the strikes carried out on the 23rd
post in UMA dispute thread
Proof from both sides, posted the rules into 5 different AI models and if July 23rd qualifies, they all said yes. Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Copilot, Deepseek and Qwen.
"Abdali border crossing was hit by Iranian drones " Kuwaiti official told France press*I have links but polymarket doesn't allow to share go search*
Iran struck a US military base in Kuwait on July 24 and released satellite images as evidence of the damage inflicted, yet no people took the "yes" position.
Will all events ultimately resolve to "no"?
iran on their own do not resolve this market
Basically lmao might as well swap all to no
23 is confirmed by IRGC and Kuwait: Kuwait’s Defence Ministry said a drone attack hit the Abdali border crossing with Iraq, causing damage but no casualties. The crossing is the country’s main gateway for passenger and commercial traffic with Iraq.
lol
research a bit bruh
google it dumfk
July 23rd is confirmed.
propose it then bozo.
IDK how
He won’t cause he will lose
Discord
mind sharing the link
Since no participants put forward a resolution in favor of "yes", the price naturally dropped and the final settlement result was "no".
Which will happen to the rest of your yes positions stop trying
all his positions are no
He switched lol
Why it falls on all days? Again some negotiators proposed truce which will be ignored? Last it was also big fall with later come back
The market lacks sufficient direction. We need "whales" to drive the price movement, regardless of whether it ultimately settles as "yes" or "no".
It lacks evidence…
we need whales only for liquidity
23rd big nah
this is scam!!
why
for shure
fuck satellite images just got published
For which date
How come the July 25th is so low when there are videos of a direct hit on the US base in Bahrain? There’s no official confirmation yet, but it’s just a matter of time, isn't it?
Videos don’t count need multiple sources confirming it happend on this time and date with both sides confirming it not just IRGC
I think July 25th may go YES based on some satellite images I have, but until there is actual legit confirmation, it's a NO. Also, people can save a lot of $ by just understanding that IRGC sources and rando X accounts are not enough. There is a sea of misinformation on X from every side.
and the exact same happend in Houthi market and cuz dis videos the counted , this market ignore all the fkn Rules accept only Gulf state confirmation which is absloulty like unwritten rule,
On July 21, Iran confirmed it launched an attack and destroyed equipment. However, no single media outlet verified that all projectiles were intercepted. This alone is sufficient for Yes holders to file a resolution
Well if Iran said they did it then it must be true. They've never lied about anything
(7.21)The market won’t auto-settle if neither Yes nor No backers file a resolution. Yes supporters, pick up cheap shares now and submit a resolution. I’ve got proof that rule-compliant events happened that day.
Nah