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July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Science Vol. $51,187 50 traders

1.25–1.29ºC4%
1.20–1.24ºC64%
1.15–1.19ºC34%
<1.10ºC1%
$51,187 Vol. Science

Outcomes

6
Chance
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
34% ▲ 27
1.20–1.24ºC
64% ▼ 25
1.25–1.29ºC
4% ▼ 3
>1.29ºC
7% ▲ 4

Recent trades

40
  • 0xa113…93f4 SELL Yes $60.00 2h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 SELL Yes $59.75 2h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $2.64 8h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $5.19 8h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $1.68 19h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $35.37 19h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $129.07 19h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $14.53 19h ago
  • 0x19b8…0c6c SELL Yes $0.35 21h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $318.28 21h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $25.80 21h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $130.09 23h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $43.00 Jul 28
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $81.91 Jul 28
  • 0x13d3…415e SELL Yes $1.50 Jul 28
  • 0x6ef8…0516 BUY No $1.00 Jul 28
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $50.71 Jul 27
  • 0x988e…d0d0 SELL Yes $1.04 Jul 27
  • 0xadb5…e421 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 27
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $4.95 Jul 27
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $42.12 Jul 27
  • 0x155d…cc16 BUY No $5.00 Jul 27
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $0.72 Jul 27
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $4.00 Jul 27
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY No $3.80 Jul 27
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $14.96 Jul 27
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $0.44 Jul 27
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $0.01 Jul 27
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $0.44 Jul 27
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $0.00 Jul 27
  • 0x45a8…5aed BUY No $4.57 Jul 27
  • 0x6206…cf4c BUY No $7.08 Jul 27
  • 0x1186…051b BUY No $708.37 Jul 27
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $4.04 Jul 27
  • 0x6206…cf4c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x7eec…c8ed BUY No $4.60 Jul 27
  • 0x7eec…c8ed BUY No $4.94 Jul 27
  • 0x1186…051b BUY Yes $12.45 Jul 27
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $45.50 Jul 27
  • 0x7abc…fe82 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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