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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Politics Vol. $22,300,155 446 traders

Yes0%
No100%
$22,300,155 Vol. Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
<1%

Recent trades

25
  • 0x2e31…1d2a SELL No $1.31 18m ago
  • 0x2d9c…e572 SELL No $2.85 18m ago
  • 0xf2f3…fda3 SELL No $0.11 18m ago
  • 0x604f…d4d9 SELL No $0.01 18m ago
  • 0xcc79…1c2a BUY No $1994.00 18m ago
  • 0x93ad…0dc5 SELL No $7.97 27m ago
  • 0x8e21…23b1 SELL No $1.48 27m ago
  • 0x8e21…23b1 BUY No $1.49 28m ago
  • 0x2d9c…e572 SELL No $2.76 30m ago
  • 0x4404…ee5f BUY No $127.47 30m ago
  • 0xf2f3…fda3 SELL No $0.07 30m ago
  • 0x4e1a…947c SELL Yes $4.14 30m ago
  • 0x93ad…0dc5 BUY No $7.98 42m ago
  • 0x8fcf…db85 SELL No $1.48 51m ago
  • 0x8fcf…db85 BUY No $1.49 51m ago
  • 0xa50d…5e0b BUY No $7.58 52m ago
  • 0xa8cc…015b SELL No $199.20 1h ago
  • 0x0711…f03c SELL Yes $0.04 1h ago
  • 0x2d9c…e572 SELL No $1.00 1h ago
  • 0x06ae…8ff3 SELL Yes $0.05 1h ago
  • 0x2ddb…0fd4 BUY No $6.90 1h ago
  • 0x6e6d…5c79 BUY No $6.00 1h ago
  • 0xfb12…d1b3 BUY Yes $4.00 1h ago
  • 0x0ae9…5f74 SELL No $298.80 2h ago
  • 0xe439…923a BUY No $51.98 2h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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