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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Tesla Vol. $885,728 50 traders

June 300%
September 309%
December 3118%
$885,728 Vol. Tesla

Outcomes

3
Chance
December 31
18% ▲ 1
September 30
9% ▼ 1
June 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x8409…753d SELL No $128.84 3h ago
  • 0xbd51…e73d SELL No $36.40 7h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 SELL No $54.60 7h ago
  • 0xca75…0a64 SELL No $41.00 9h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.82 9h ago
  • 0x9259…c2d3 SELL No $31.98 10h ago
  • 0xc18e…44e3 SELL Yes $1.60 10h ago
  • 0x44fc…ac29 SELL No $88.23 11h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 11h ago
  • 0x313f…e8a5 SELL Yes $3.20 12h ago
  • 0xdb28…08cc SELL Yes $3.20 12h ago
  • 0xbd51…e73d SELL Yes $113.07 12h ago
  • 0xad52…11ac SELL Yes $161.20 12h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 12h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 13h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 14h ago
  • 0x1429…77b8 SELL Yes $1.80 18h ago
  • 0xd1f7…c12e SELL Yes $21.21 18h ago
  • 0x4191…569f SELL No $610.90 Jul 28
  • 0xfe3f…abe7 SELL Yes $18.00 Jul 28
  • 0x8f33…54fc SELL No $82.00 Jul 28
  • 0x1543…baaf BUY Yes $364.80 Jul 28
  • 0x40fe…3bfd BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 27
  • 0x40fe…3bfd BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 27
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
  • 0x1583…bdde SELL Yes $1.80 Jul 27
  • 0x5b63…11a4 BUY Yes $45.74 Jul 27
  • 0x9e40…fe2d BUY No $182.00 Jul 27
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
  • 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
  • 0xf0e0…016a SELL Yes $6.50 Jul 27
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $8.16 Jul 27
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $8.00 Jul 27
  • 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL Yes $8.50 Jul 27
  • 0x74aa…2c3f SELL Yes $7.36 Jul 27
  • 0xc8a2…c9b6 SELL Yes $6.96 Jul 27
  • 0xccc4…4193 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0xcd96…11a3 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x41ce…6509 BUY No $500.00 Jul 27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

SIMOMEGA Jul 18

how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol

DontTrustMe Jul 7

Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.

0xe1EF6DA20a953fa234e4B4c05D9ACc79d27a0145-1776960165813 Jul 25

Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.

DontTrustMe Jul 25

Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.

SIMOMEGA Jun 25

dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?

ProofOfWork Jul 2

For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control

SIMOMEGA Jul 3

what are the downsides of a merge then?

BeyondAverage4ck May 26

The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened

SIMOMEGA Jun 23

How?

0xC1F43854000BFF81Da38332Fb25Cf94765bD5344-1768576770320 Mar 13

Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.

ProofOfWork Jul 2

He would gain control.

0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058 Feb 10

H

0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058 Feb 13

G Wells