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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Geopolitics Vol. $2,513,114 50 traders

Yes22%
No78%
$2,513,114 Vol. Geopolitics
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
22% ▲ 1

Recent trades

25
  • 0x2c11…e6b3 BUY Yes $7.00 31m ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL No $1.86 2h ago
  • 0xbd81…c215 SELL No $481.48 2h ago
  • 0x23a8…95be BUY No $20.00 4h ago
  • 0x6bea…224d SELL No $98.73 7h ago
  • 0x6bea…224d BUY No $100.00 7h ago
  • 0x03a2…dc06 SELL Yes $3.75 10h ago
  • 0x55a4…20e9 BUY Yes $30.00 11h ago
  • 0xdc15…e13b BUY No $18.99 14h ago
  • 0x0b1c…cc8a BUY Yes $7.70 15h ago
  • 0x1576…c986 BUY Yes $233.20 15h ago
  • 0x1576…c986 BUY Yes $63.80 15h ago
  • 0x8a6c…375c SELL No $10.98 15h ago
  • 0x129d…7d2d SELL No $780.00 15h ago
  • 0x68d9…041d BUY Yes $1.10 19h ago
  • 0xc754…bb99 SELL No $1.15 20h ago
  • 0xb217…4658 SELL Yes $10.50 Jul 28
  • 0x532b…132a BUY No $2.00 Jul 28
  • 0x442c…3db8 BUY No $15.01 Jul 28
  • 0x47e7…2ff5 SELL Yes $1.30 Jul 28
  • 0x47e7…2ff5 BUY Yes $1.36 Jul 28
  • 0x2721…cf8a BUY Yes $1.19 Jul 28
  • 0x2721…cf8a SELL Yes $1.33 Jul 28
  • 0x7770…518d BUY No $14.29 Jul 28
  • 0xc754…bb99 BUY No $1.17 Jul 28

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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