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Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?

Putin Vol. $806 50 traders

July 3134%
August 3172%
$806 Vol. putin

Outcomes

2
Chance
July 31
35%
August 31
72%

Recent trades

21
  • 0x10d7…eb3b BUY No $18.56 34m ago
  • 0x8824…ff96 SELL No $5.30 49m ago
  • 0x270b…e632 SELL No $8.78 55m ago
  • 0xb47f…d792 BUY Yes $72.90 55m ago
  • 0x270b…e632 SELL No $12.40 1h ago
  • 0xb47f…d792 BUY Yes $74.88 1h ago
  • 0x52a9…81e8 BUY Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0x9b22…3a92 BUY Yes $4.32 5h ago
  • 0x3a72…331f SELL No $9.14 6h ago
  • 0x3a72…331f BUY No $10.00 9h ago
  • 0xfd47…805a BUY Yes $20.00 11h ago
  • 0xc934…9887 BUY Yes $3.00 13h ago
  • 0xe5d7…6530 BUY Yes $7.22 14h ago
  • 0xe5d7…6530 BUY Yes $5.25 14h ago
  • 0xe5d7…6530 BUY Yes $7.09 14h ago
  • 0xe5d7…6530 BUY Yes $39.25 14h ago
  • 0xc934…9887 BUY Yes $10.00 14h ago
  • 0xe762…064b SELL Yes $2.20 16h ago
  • 0x9238…b73e SELL Yes $23.80 16h ago
  • 0xf2aa…21fb BUY No $67.00 17h ago
  • 0x9238…b73e BUY Yes $20.90 17h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

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