US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Outcomes
5Recent trades
40- 0xd5d7…4952 SELL Yes $14.46 1m ago
- 0x4d02…2ad3 BUY Yes $30.00 3m ago
- 0x766f…0e3a BUY Yes $1.00 5m ago
- 0x39ca…7605 BUY Yes $2.01 5m ago
- 0x766f…0e3a SELL No $0.93 6m ago
- 0x7010…eede SELL No $15.00 6m ago
- 0x2940…304c SELL No $73.12 6m ago
- 0x0f57…4139 SELL Yes $0.85 6m ago
- 0xcda9…91f6 SELL No $1.79 6m ago
- 0x4158…ce9f SELL No $188.26 6m ago
- 0x1aee…57c7 BUY No $1.50 6m ago
- 0x5e50…c665 BUY No $2.20 7m ago
- 0x6706…2341 BUY Yes $4.00 7m ago
- 0xe7e9…b434 BUY Yes $10.00 7m ago
- 0x378a…001b BUY Yes $2.00 7m ago
- 0xfa2b…bb8a BUY Yes $5.00 7m ago
- 0x2940…304c BUY Yes $79.60 7m ago
- 0xe152…9976 BUY Yes $1.00 7m ago
- 0x7010…eede BUY Yes $8.62 7m ago
- 0xba1f…4258 BUY Yes $19.90 7m ago
- 0x4158…ce9f BUY Yes $200.00 7m ago
- 0x766f…0e3a BUY Yes $2.00 7m ago
- 0x6706…2341 BUY Yes $8.00 7m ago
- 0xe7e9…b434 BUY Yes $10.00 7m ago
- 0x39ca…7605 BUY Yes $4.00 7m ago
- 0xfa2b…bb8a BUY Yes $5.00 7m ago
- 0x4ce1…d77b BUY Yes $4.00 10m ago
- 0x0f57…4139 SELL Yes $0.49 15m ago
- 0x05ab…8145 SELL Yes $129.00 15m ago
- 0x67a1…2767 BUY Yes $2.10 20m ago
- 0xcf6c…3f8d BUY Yes $1.85 25m ago
- 0x3642…fb1b BUY Yes $2.10 27m ago
- 0x229e…ec47 BUY Yes $2.60 30m ago
- 0x1ff0…0a65 SELL No $0.12 37m ago
- 0x47ae…ee94 SELL No $302.33 41m ago
- 0xaf4d…6b57 BUY No $1.30 47m ago
- 0x2620…29a0 BUY No $3.00 52m ago
- 0xa164…4686 SELL Yes $127.50 55m ago
- 0xab60…621c BUY No $1.55 57m ago
- 0xb66c…a0f5 BUY No $1.00 57m ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
Comments
maybe
Never trust ☪️
how do you make thst half moon you always do?
and how do you make the *** star?
Don't worry about it. Focus your energy on fixing your sh!tty religion
and then we gonna have to listen to them whine ooh buhu everybodys against us they antisemite we didnt do nothing 😭 😭 😭 6m oct7
Bruh... You whine day and night about this stuff that no one cares about. get some self-awareness fr
What were dealing with here is a terrorist N*zi state, of course their sponsor is gonna atrack iran
and you gonna enjoy and make money off of it
24 Lebanese villages, some centuries old, have been razed. Not just individual buildings, but entire villages. Between 15,000 and 20,000 homes have been destroyed. These words, sounding like a human rights report, were spoken by Israeli Defense Minister Katz. And not merely spoken, but boasted of as a supreme achievement. Yet behind these figures lie tens of thousands of lost lives. And no end to any of this is in sight.
Literally every house had either terrorists living there or weapons such as rockets (or both) - in many cases, hidden under children's beds (have I mentioned zero value for human lives?). Israel should never leave and should probably build new Israeli towns that will prosper.
he will do a delicate little love tap
trump is too scared but if Iran keeps doing it hell have to respond
lmao they struck Iraq not Iran. weak response
Can i have a million dollars
Taco Taco
Iran attacks US - US: Iran wants to make a deal very badly. Iran nukes US - US: Iran still wants to make a deal, look how desperate they are!
TACO
Taco Tuesday
Smell you later
US response soon
will not. It doesn't die any american soldier
US response soon indeed
Only it counts strikes initiated by US! Not by Iran
please explain to me, at what point was July 24th Yes @ 60% ever a fair value?
trump explicitly showed his intention to taco (still possible)
Hostilities between Iran and the US ceased on July 24. If the ceasefire holds for the subsequent 14 consecutive days, the contract will resolve to "Yes". If US military forces launch any attack on any single day within this window, the contract will automatically settle as "No".
Everyone is overly optimistic, believing the ceasefire will hold indefinitely.
The point at which the Iranians accept Trumps surrender, but they want even more
Even with a taco, after a prolonged bombing campaign, the odds of nothing happening for an additional 2 weeks because of a one sided ceasefire bluff are very very low. Someone needs to fix their pricing model
that being said, it is Tuesday...
They are not actually.
MAGA Kool Aid is tasty
i'm going to hold, idc losing 5$
Barak Ravid: Iran launched ballistic missiles towards a U.S base in Jordan, U.S Official says
Allahu Akbar
Axios: The missiles were intercepted
Most likely, the Iranians will once again claim it was a technical glitch, and Trump won't want to derail negotiations over a single strike.
what are you guys doing
What's your argument to hold? Don't they usually respond with at least a love tap or two?
breathe
Nuuuuuke
Oh Allah, show no mercy
Haha insiders are selling they know something is coming
dumbass peace tards about to get smoked
Bismillah Ar-Rahman Ar-Raheem Al-hamdu lillahi Rabb il-'alamin Ar-Rahman Ar-Raheem Maliki yawmi-d-Din Iyya-ka na'budu wa iyya-ka nasta'in Ihdina-sirat al-mustaqim Sirat al-ladhina an'amta 'alai-him Ghair il-Maghdubi 'alai-him wa la-d-dallin
what is going on?
Iran attacked Jordan
Why is July 24 not resolved yet I'm confused?
Read the rules
i cant believe i have to deal with this absolute shitshow ITS ALL ISRAELS FAULT!
You are obsessed. Check yourself
check yo self before yo wreck yo self
why dont yo bet hammer this markets awesome
the victim
.
panic selling because of an attack on kurds CRINE
yungsoleimani makes the rules
you just a little kid man u misunderstand as always i dont make the rules i just collect the money
Israel doing pogroms in Westbank and then i have to listen to them cry oooh buhuhu were the victim everybodys against us 6m buhu bla bla bla bla bla 😭 😭