Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Outcomes
8Recent trades
40- 0x891a…6648 BUY No $2.31 1h ago
- 0x2b56…598d BUY No $99.60 1h ago
- 0x19e0…67a1 BUY No $7.76 2h ago
- 0x4e23…05ca SELL Yes $3.52 2h ago
- 0xa8a0…64b1 SELL Yes $0.32 2h ago
- 0x9b93…0bd8 SELL Yes $28.90 2h ago
- 0x7b09…3d56 SELL Yes $26.38 2h ago
- 0x7b09…3d56 SELL Yes $1.32 2h ago
- 0xb41e…11fd BUY Yes $1.32 2h ago
- 0x183c…95d2 SELL Yes $30.60 2h ago
- 0xb778…9109 SELL Yes $29.70 2h ago
- 0x43c4…04b2 SELL Yes $30.77 2h ago
- 0xa0f4…d468 SELL Yes $29.87 2h ago
- 0xe127…9e18 SELL Yes $30.60 2h ago
- 0xa21f…fdd4 SELL Yes $15.25 2h ago
- 0xa21f…fdd4 SELL Yes $14.89 2h ago
- 0xa8a0…64b1 SELL Yes $30.87 2h ago
- 0x4e23…05ca SELL Yes $14.78 2h ago
- 0x4e23…05ca SELL Yes $9.40 2h ago
- 0x9b93…0bd8 BUY Yes $24.46 2h ago
- 0x9b93…0bd8 BUY Yes $24.30 2h ago
- 0x7b09…3d56 BUY Yes $23.92 2h ago
- 0x7b09…3d56 BUY Yes $23.04 2h ago
- 0xb862…9452 SELL No $34.96 2h ago
- 0xb862…9452 BUY No $35.00 2h ago
- 0xe127…9e18 BUY Yes $24.49 2h ago
- 0xe127…9e18 BUY Yes $23.21 2h ago
- 0x183c…95d2 BUY Yes $22.80 2h ago
- 0x183c…95d2 BUY Yes $23.10 2h ago
- 0x008a…7947 BUY No $2.65 3h ago
- 0xda90…8efa SELL Yes $0.20 3h ago
- 0xaf64…177a SELL No $26.47 3h ago
- 0xaf64…177a BUY No $26.50 4h ago
- 0xe7a3…097d BUY No $2.59 5h ago
- 0xea29…86d4 BUY No $1.00 6h ago
- 0x14f7…13a8 BUY No $1.41 6h ago
- 0xb361…6cf7 BUY No $1.92 7h ago
- 0xac4a…bf1e SELL Yes $0.40 7h ago
- 0x9dc5…d6b7 SELL No $199.19 8h ago
- 0x9dc5…d6b7 SELL No $200.60 8h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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