Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
Outcomes
4Recent trades
25- 0x2108…d3dd SELL No $49.86 13h ago
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $39.09 13h ago
- 0x1d38…2078 BUY Yes $77.00 13h ago
- 0x6c36…cd80 BUY Yes $1.00 21h ago
- 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $0.96 Jul 28
- 0x9f60…3a16 BUY Yes $2.27 Jul 27
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $117.00 Jul 27
- 0x51de…9e4a BUY Yes $139.15 Jul 27
- 0x25c5…8581 BUY Yes $12.00 Jul 24
- 0x1b9f…47c2 SELL Yes $6.78 Jul 24
- 0x51de…9e4a BUY Yes $4.05 Jul 24
- 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $12.83 Jul 24
- 0xd84c…8273 BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 24
- 0xee8a…f0b0 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 24
- 0x5f57…c270 BUY Yes $32.11 Jul 24
- 0x5f57…c270 BUY Yes $19.00 Jul 24
- 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $5.94 Jul 24
- 0x8c65…dcf7 SELL Yes $2.21 Jul 24
- 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $4.27 Jul 24
- 0x9b85…1259 BUY No $1000.00 Jul 24
- 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $3.85 Jul 23
- 0x5c91…5ccc BUY No $3.95 Jul 23
- 0xfcf4…527f BUY Yes $100.00 Jul 23
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $40.00 Jul 23
- 0xfcf4…527f BUY Yes $127.30 Jul 23
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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