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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Climate & Science Vol. $138,622 50 traders

Yes9%
No92%
$138,622 Vol. Climate & Science
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
9% ▼ 3

Recent trades

25
  • 0x764a…83d3 SELL Yes $1.54 11h ago
  • 0xd38f…bf78 SELL Yes $0.35 11h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY Yes $0.97 11h ago
  • 0x61a6…de5f SELL Yes $9.63 11h ago
  • 0xba6c…618b SELL No $44.00 13h ago
  • 0x3b69…01d7 SELL No $45.50 13h ago
  • 0x61a6…de5f BUY Yes $13.08 13h ago
  • 0x3de2…d073 SELL Yes $0.35 18h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $1.87 18h ago
  • 0x73b8…f6b5 BUY No $79.80 19h ago
  • 0x302b…7a54 SELL No $43.50 Jul 27
  • 0x302b…7a54 BUY No $44.80 Jul 27
  • 0x8d24…61b9 BUY Yes $1.04 Jul 27
  • 0x9e3e…f882 BUY Yes $4.67 Jul 23
  • 0x9e3e…f882 BUY Yes $4.67 Jul 23
  • 0x9e3e…f882 BUY Yes $4.67 Jul 23
  • 0xe907…cff6 SELL Yes $3.69 Jul 19
  • 0xe907…cff6 BUY Yes $4.67 Jul 15
  • 0xfb3e…94ce SELL Yes $3.70 Jul 14
  • 0xfb3e…94ce SELL Yes $1.98 Jul 14
  • 0x0e0b…a0f5 SELL Yes $2.24 Jul 13
  • 0x99bc…4f35 SELL No $12.90 Jul 13
  • 0x30a7…02fa BUY No $46.99 Jul 13
  • 0xb2ca…cf4d SELL No $2.45 Jul 12
  • 0xb566…121c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 7

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Comments

swerving Jun 7

Strong El Nino ocean temp growing in Pacific could lead to warmer Gulf of America water temps that produce sudden, strong hurricanes. '92 and 2018 are examples of this.