Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Recent trades
25- 0x0781…c4ff SELL Yes $6.75 11h ago
- 0x0781…c4ff SELL Yes $2.00 11h ago
- 0x5b2b…3a21 BUY Yes $1.27 Jul 27
- 0xddd3…355c SELL Yes $0.84 Jul 27
- 0xa296…9c36 BUY No $1.01 Jul 26
- 0x3c76…d4ee BUY No $22.75 Jul 26
- 0x579a…b0a7 BUY No $100.00 Jul 26
- 0x8cfa…b608 BUY Yes $22.75 Jul 26
- 0xffc6…59a4 BUY No $10.00 Jul 26
- 0x8342…b349 BUY No $100.00 Jul 26
- 0x4fca…6466 BUY Yes $0.13 Jul 26
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $1.56 Jul 25
- 0xdfb7…fad0 SELL Yes $3.57 Jul 25
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $4.30 Jul 25
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $8.60 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 SELL Yes $0.18 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 SELL Yes $0.65 Jul 25
- 0x28b8…5e00 BUY No $2.00 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 SELL Yes $0.73 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 SELL Yes $0.73 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 SELL Yes $0.73 Jul 25
- 0xb3ff…cad3 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 25
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Comments
where is drop guys?
Flavio Bolsonaro e uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno: Estadao 11/04
O marqueteiro do ratinho com certeza é alguém que sabe muito de política brasileira.
É uma folha em branco? Acho que você quis dizer "tem uma ficha corrida"
You dont know nothing about the researchs and probability, it shoul be 75-25
Pesquisa mais recente dando 35% pro Flávio e 33% pro Lula, mas segundo a sua "probabilidade", a chance deveria ser 75-25 de não ter segundo turno, confia...
Estadao: Flavio Bolsonaro eh uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno
Bota o título da matéria completo, faltou: "Disse o marqueteiro do Ratinho", uau. Se você está tão certo disso, entra all-in então.
Não sei se o mais estúpido é essa frase ou quem leva ela a sério
I'd give less than 5% chance of this happening... I'm putting some money on it
Yeah, this price doesn't make any sense...
Qual a pegadinha?
Only FHC won in the first round. The country is divided. Almost 7% white/null votes, Lula doesn't even have 40% of intentions as of january.
better than cdi
wrong dates on end...on top should be 2026
se depender do alexandre de moraes nao vai ter segundo tuno.
Add Claudio Castro, please
UGABUGA lets goooooooo
free money honestly just low liquidity and it will take too long aswell
i agree coconut, not the best bet for us rn
Fernando Morais, Lula’s biographer and friend, said he believed that if the 2026 election were held today, “Lula would win in the first round”
Nobody asked Fernando
Kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
Eu acredito que Lula ganha so no segundo turno!!!!
Lula Vai ganhar so no segundo turno
easy bet...
Really?
Almost impossible for a president to be elected on the first round in Brazil. The country is very divided and both sides have high amount of desapproval
the estimated end date is wrong
They fixed
Fernando Henrique Cardoso em 1998
Not gonna happen. Doesn’t matter the candidate…