← Markets
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
Loading chart…
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
32%
▼ 4
Recent trades
25- 0x5a0d…c6be BUY Yes $31.00 13h ago
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $5.11 16h ago
- 0x5a0d…c6be SELL No $16.76 16h ago
- 0x5a0d…c6be SELL No $18.35 17h ago
- 0x5a0d…c6be SELL No $50.16 17h ago
- 0x073e…8416 SELL Yes $15.82 20h ago
- 0x7e35…1a6c BUY No $212.32 20h ago
- 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL Yes $24.45 Jul 26
- 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL Yes $10.80 Jul 26
- 0x2a20…89d2 SELL Yes $19.00 Jul 26
- 0x7e35…1a6c BUY No $119.48 Jul 26
- 0x6014…2b59 BUY No $5.00 Jul 23
- 0x54c6…e5c2 SELL Yes $2.57 Jul 21
- 0x5a0d…c6be BUY No $31.60 Jul 20
- 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $4.35 Jul 20
- 0x2e4a…ac2e BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 20
- 0x5a0d…c6be BUY No $8.10 Jul 15
- 0x5a0d…c6be BUY No $8.88 Jul 11
- 0x5a0d…c6be BUY No $2.13 Jul 11
- 0x58e8…bb5a BUY No $2.55 Jul 11
- 0xd823…12fe SELL No $2.50 Jul 11
- 0xda20…cb8d SELL No $25.62 Jul 11
- 0x5a0d…c6be BUY No $16.52 Jul 10
- 0xcceb…f030 SELL No $36.42 Jul 10
- 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL No $28.49 Jul 10
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Comments
Not looking super promising so far. Lecornu is already talking about adopting a budget "by February 2027".
It could go two ways really: 1) Since the 2027 presidential election will be right around the corner, parties might be ok to adopt a fairly "politically-neutral" budget and claim that it doesn't really matter since they will be able to modify it through a "budget rectificatif" the following year. 2) Since France is in a pretty terrible financial situation, some unpopular decisions might have to be included in the budget bill and parties might not want to take responsibility for those decisions right before the election, preventing the adoption of a budget in due time. More or less a 50%/50% market at the moment imo.
Very interesting market! 👀 But too early to enter a position at the moment.