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Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
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Outcomes
4December 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
March 31, 2026 Resolved
0%
▲ 1
October 31, 2026
22%
December 31, 2026
35%
▲ 1
Recent trades
40- 0xf23e…fab9 BUY No $5.36 18h ago
- 0xf23e…fab9 BUY No $14.00 18h ago
- 0x3b5a…6e13 BUY Yes $4.40 20h ago
- 0x3933…026b SELL No $50.65 23h ago
- 0x62fd…2e1c BUY No $1.74 23h ago
- 0xe7a9…f922 BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 28
- 0x977c…a86f BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 27
- 0x977c…a86f BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 27
- 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $1.47 Jul 26
- 0x82cd…d7d8 SELL Yes $1.47 Jul 26
- 0x2975…56e0 SELL Yes $9.24 Jul 26
- 0xbada…d874 SELL No $0.12 Jul 24
- 0xf524…8178 SELL No $46.80 Jul 24
- 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $4.62 Jul 24
- 0xaa40…4629 SELL Yes $8.01 Jul 24
- 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $5.06 Jul 24
- 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $4.60 Jul 24
- 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $14.93 Jul 24
- 0x3933…026b BUY No $50.00 Jul 24
- 0x2975…56e0 BUY Yes $5.04 Jul 23
- 0x8c4e…f93a SELL Yes $5.52 Jul 23
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $5.52 Jul 23
- 0xaa40…4629 SELL Yes $0.72 Jul 23
- 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $4.80 Jul 23
- 0x5675…f6a6 SELL Yes $5.52 Jul 23
- 0x82cd…d7d8 SELL Yes $10.32 Jul 23
- 0xf2f2…d1f0 SELL Yes $4.80 Jul 23
- 0xc465…185c SELL No $8.79 Jul 23
- 0x2a31…764c SELL No $1.20 Jul 22
- 0x389a…397d SELL Yes $50.66 Jul 21
- 0xf27d…e6d3 BUY No $4.35 Jul 20
- 0xf27d…e6d3 BUY No $4.20 Jul 20
- 0xf27d…e6d3 BUY No $4.49 Jul 20
- 0x5339…3900 SELL Yes $1.62 Jul 20
- 0xc465…185c BUY No $6.55 Jul 20
- 0xe53c…e569 SELL Yes $2.40 Jul 20
- 0x389a…397d BUY Yes $100.00 Jul 20
- 0x389a…397d SELL No $118.35 Jul 20
- 0x755d…6acc SELL No $20.00 Jul 20
- 0xc779…9ca3 SELL No $0.56 Jul 19
This is a market on whether OpenAI will release a consumer hardware product by the specified date.
Comments
These scammers from openai have to try something, they are losing tens of billions of $ every year and they are not able to push their usual lies, so a product like this is likely, it will be a huge flop, but hey, that's basically this company in a nutshell
The value of the company only did like 10x in the past year or two. That's what counts.
What does "launch" mean... such ambiguous and lazy rules. Does it have to be for sale available to the public with delivery date within 2026?
Yes it is problematic to say the least.
sam altman responded to one of my x posts saying its def coming out, I think specifically to fuck me after I bought No
sam altman responded to one of my x posts saying its def coming out, I think specifically to fuck me after I bought No
confirmed pushed to 2027, likely cancelled
It will be released a month or two before Christmas, almost certainly.
Wired: OpenAI will not use the Jony Ive "io" branding for any of the company's hardware devices, VP Peter Welinder said in a court filing Monday. Welinder says OpenAI's first device won't ship til at least March 2027. The company has yet to make any ads or packaging around it.
Gemini and Apple are releasing devices this year. OpenAI cannot afford to let them get all the market share, while sitting on their hands. Just not going to happen.
OpenAI aims to ship its first device in 2026, and it could be earbuds @ techcrunch
"on track to unveil" in the "latter part of 2026" - Chris Lehane
Wtf? What happened? No liquidity?
I know...WTF. Why don't people like this market?
That photo bro 😭
I keep hearing rumors about an OpenAI device, but honestly I will believe a consumer hardware launch only when they actually unveil something real.
What does it mean to "launch" a device? Does the concept need to be finalized? Open to pre-orders? SHIP by the EOY? This is extremely vague..
I agree, they could announce it at CES in las vegas this month and ship it in December 26. Does this count as YES?
I agree...it is way too vague.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
What happened here?
Late 2026 or early 2027 according to The Information - " The devices won’t arrive tomorrow (or the day after that); the target launch window is late 2026 or early 2027 -- but the apparent trail for an Open AI-branded gadget is already telling."
What the coin relate this chance?
It's coming Late 2026: " In a widely cited report, the Journal revealed details from the internal staff meeting. They reported that Altman gave employees a preview of the device and its strategy. Crucially, the report mentioned that the goal is to ship the device by late 2026." -
Yeah, it's going to come for a while. This is from his latest interview with The Verge: "It’s going to take us a while, but I think you will think it is very worth the wait. I think it is incredible. You don’t get a new computing paradigm very often. There have been like only two in the last 50 years. So just let yourself be happy and surprised. It really is worth the wait."
Sam Altman: someday soon something smarter than the smartest person you know will be running on a device in your pocket, helping you with whatever you want. this is a very remarkable thing.
[link removed]
yes "soon" as in a year from now.
ur phone is a device
Does “launch” mean available to public?
What about AI toys? [link removed]
I suspect th device will be more like an oura ring or meta rayban glasses -- i.e. an accessory that connects to your phone and is recording data like audio and maybe video & serves as the input / provides context to interface with chatgpt much more seamlessly (i.e. almost like youre talking to a person) . That means the hardware itself won't be super powerful and therefore bumps up the release date since it won't be super difficult to manufature
Sam has confirmed the physical device prototype exists and he's used it. The Jony Ive deal confirms it's ready & they just need to manufacture it now which could be done well before March next year. Odds should be way higher than 33% imo
What's the definition of "launched"? It means the product can be actually bought?
Chat gibidy
I hope its a robo GF that doesn't nag you all the time