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Will Russia target Kyiv by...?

Kyiv Vol. $2,229 50 traders

August 3196%
July 3155%
$2,229 Vol. Kyiv

Outcomes

2
Chance
July 31
55% ▼ 2
August 31
96% ▲ 7

Recent trades

40
  • 0x5fa4…11cb BUY Yes $2.00 9m ago
  • 0x10d7…eb3b BUY No $15.00 38m ago
  • 0xe762…064b BUY Yes $10.32 1h ago
  • 0xc109…450b BUY Yes $2.95 1h ago
  • 0x9b22…3a92 BUY Yes $2.93 1h ago
  • 0x9238…b73e BUY Yes $14.75 1h ago
  • 0x2702…0495 BUY Yes $4.41 1h ago
  • 0x29a1…5645 SELL Yes $5.55 2h ago
  • 0x29a1…5645 BUY Yes $8.85 2h ago
  • 0xe762…064b BUY Yes $20.57 2h ago
  • 0x94bb…c320 BUY Yes $17.40 2h ago
  • 0x9b22…3a92 BUY Yes $5.77 2h ago
  • 0x1516…3f5a BUY Yes $1.44 2h ago
  • 0x9238…b73e BUY Yes $29.00 2h ago
  • 0x2a20…89d2 SELL Yes $8.80 2h ago
  • 0x2702…0495 BUY Yes $9.00 2h ago
  • 0xf9e1…e46f BUY Yes $17.77 2h ago
  • 0xfe2c…d246 BUY Yes $50.00 2h ago
  • 0x355e…a038 BUY No $12.40 3h ago
  • 0x355e…a038 BUY No $68.12 3h ago
  • 0xc6e9…057f SELL No $0.48 6h ago
  • 0x3a72…331f SELL No $0.46 6h ago
  • 0x0ed7…a702 BUY Yes $2.00 8h ago
  • 0x3a72…331f BUY No $1.00 9h ago
  • 0x4c85…635c BUY Yes $355.85 13h ago
  • 0xc934…9887 BUY Yes $3.00 14h ago
  • 0x64ef…bf82 SELL No $1.20 18h ago
  • 0xcdf5…e344 SELL No $0.90 18h ago
  • 0xcdf5…e344 SELL No $1.40 18h ago
  • 0xcdf5…e344 SELL No $0.80 18h ago
  • 0x64ef…bf82 SELL No $1.00 18h ago
  • 0x4ae5…6079 SELL No $1.00 18h ago
  • 0xdb28…08cc SELL No $1.25 18h ago
  • 0x1924…dff3 SELL No $1.70 18h ago
  • 0xd950…ad1b SELL No $7.20 18h ago
  • 0xd8b4…1217 BUY Yes $10.00 19h ago
  • 0xf057…ab54 SELL No $1.52 21h ago
  • 0x50bd…ee34 SELL No $2.59 21h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $3.08 21h ago
  • 0x3311…c8a3 SELL No $2.85 21h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

IamBatman- 15s ago

Hey guys I missed you all