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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Reza Pahlavi Vol. $23,326,870 466 traders

Yes10%
No91%
$23,326,870 Vol. Reza Pahlavi
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10% ▲ 1

Recent trades

25
  • 0x3669…b4bd SELL Yes $7.27 3m ago
  • 0x8f0b…ee2e SELL Yes $3.38 28m ago
  • 0x174e…2a52 BUY No $12.34 1h ago
  • 0xf3d4…84a1 BUY No $455.00 1h ago
  • 0x4f9e…9aa0 BUY No $1.82 1h ago
  • 0x4cbe…100a BUY Yes $600.00 1h ago
  • 0xf3d4…84a1 BUY No $455.00 1h ago
  • 0xdae8…15f8 BUY No $110.00 1h ago
  • 0x601e…21aa SELL Yes $1.70 2h ago
  • 0x825c…f9a9 BUY No $18.20 2h ago
  • 0x85dc…0889 BUY No $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x60bd…45b1 BUY Yes $10.00 2h ago
  • 0xd4d9…06cd BUY No $109.00 2h ago
  • 0x6604…6beb BUY No $45.50 3h ago
  • 0x7761…f504 BUY Yes $2.00 3h ago
  • 0x6c46…84cc SELL Yes $0.54 3h ago
  • 0x5923…49cd BUY No $21.60 3h ago
  • 0xa45e…4e7c SELL No $14.85 3h ago
  • 0x025d…5b22 SELL Yes $5.38 4h ago
  • 0x9d06…c4e8 BUY No $36.40 4h ago
  • 0x6ae4…d4ce SELL Yes $22.53 4h ago
  • 0x91ad…b29e BUY No $1.00 4h ago
  • 0x2a9d…4124 BUY No $1.00 4h ago
  • 0x6334…227f BUY No $11.00 4h ago
  • 0xdce7…8bcf BUY No $4.97 4h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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