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Will Ukraine target Moscow by...?

Putin Vol. $1,854 50 traders

August 3182%
July 3130%
$1,854 Vol. putin

Outcomes

2
Chance
July 31
30% ▼ 18
August 31
82% ▲ 7

Recent trades

28
  • 0x4629…f3b1 SELL Yes $16.40 22m ago
  • 0xfc1f…a246 BUY No $31.25 1h ago
  • 0xacfa…70fd BUY No $5.00 5h ago
  • 0x9fa8…593a SELL Yes $150.59 12h ago
  • 0xca75…0a64 SELL No $3.60 12h ago
  • 0xae7a…25ea SELL No $3.60 13h ago
  • 0xd8cf…dbff SELL No $4.00 13h ago
  • 0x9fa8…593a BUY Yes $146.71 13h ago
  • 0xefdd…8370 BUY Yes $6.01 14h ago
  • 0x34dc…d280 BUY Yes $10.00 15h ago
  • 0x442c…3db8 BUY Yes $20.52 17h ago
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL Yes $9.27 18h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $15.00 19h ago
  • 0xd8b4…1217 BUY Yes $3.00 19h ago
  • 0xeaa9…1737 SELL Yes $28.08 20h ago
  • 0xf333…ba41 SELL Yes $28.44 20h ago
  • 0x50bd…ee34 SELL Yes $26.88 20h ago
  • 0xb1fe…423a BUY No $74.26 20h ago
  • 0x8785…49b1 BUY Yes $40.00 21h ago
  • 0x195e…a7b6 SELL No $9.38 21h ago
  • 0xc6e9…057f SELL No $3.20 21h ago
  • 0x3901…9761 SELL No $3.56 22h ago
  • 0x3c18…32c3 SELL No $3.20 22h ago
  • 0xd8cf…dbff SELL No $3.60 22h ago
  • 0x05dd…305c SELL No $1.05 22h ago
  • 0x2cd9…660a SELL No $2.14 22h ago
  • 0xd5cc…dea4 SELL No $22.40 22h ago
  • 0xfec4…cfc8 BUY Yes $4.72 23h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

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